Tips for Betting Value in Football – In his book “Bet to win” Prof. Williams wrote: “If there was ever a golden age of betting, it is it. He was absolutely right. In today’s world of football betting, we enjoy the services of bookmakers, online betting tips and media news. However, there are still two important questions that every player must answer before placing a bet: who is the favorite and what bet to place. Online betting resources such as betting tips sites, expertly generated team analysis and media news help you choose your match favorite and even estimate the odds of winning in a short amount of time. However, calculating your profits at the end of the season, you find them, at least, disappointing. Why? The reason is clear: poor money management.
This article summarizes the research carried out to estimate the optimal parameters for a money management strategy. This research is based on a comparison between the statistics of Europe’s top soccer gambling leagues vs. secondary who played in the 2008/09 and 2009/10 seasons.
To present research results, a number of definitions are needed.
“Bet value” is a measure of the inconsistency between the punter’s predictions and the bet for the outcome of an upcoming match. Each result has a different value.
Value bets only refer to the value of a potentially profitable outcome. For example, if the probability of winning is 50%, then only outcomes with odds higher than 2 are considered value bets. The formula is as follows: odds x probability of winning. If the value is higher than 1, the bet is considered a “value bet”.
The probability of a home win/draw/away win is estimated based on their average frequency of appearances over a season.
Kelly’s strategy defines the optimal bet a player should place on the favourite.
Given the value of each outcome, profits are calculated based on the assumption that players place bets according to Kelly’s strategy. If the bet bet is negative, the punter does not play. Profits are calculated using the bookmaker’s average betting odds.
The optimal value bet is the value bet that yields the maximum profit.
Data from the top ten leagues and ten secondary leagues from the following European countries were analyzed: Austria, England, Netherlands, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Scotland, Spain and Turkey.
The punter’s average profit from soccer betting is calculated for value bets from 1.01 to 2. The optimal bet value found is 1.38, offering a 12% average return for the top European Football Leagues. However, the optimal value bet for the secondary league was found to be 1.5, resulting in an average profit of 19%. This difference means that a player should have more confidence when betting on the secondary leagues, than when betting on the top leagues. Profits are higher because the bookmaker’s predictions are worse, resulting in attractive betting opportunities for punters.